IT Jobs
Analysts predict bleak future for Windows
OS slowly "collapsing" as Redmond fiddles.
By Gregg Keizer, Computerworld (US)
Published: 08:50 GMT, 11 April 08
Calling the situation "untenable" and describing Windows as "collapsing," a pair of Gartner analysts have claimed that Microsoft must make radical changes to the operating system or risk becoming a has-been.
In a presentation at a Gartner-sponsored conference in Las Vegas, analysts Michael Silver and Neil MacDonald said Microsoft has not responded to the market, is overburdened by nearly two decades of legacy code and decisions and faces serious competition on a whole host of fronts that will make Windows moot unless the Redmond company acts.
"For Microsoft, its ecosystem and its customers, the situation is untenable," said Silver and MacDonald in their prepared presentation, titled: Windows Is Collapsing: How What Comes Next Will Improve.
Among Microsoft's problems, the pair said, is Windows' rapidly-expanding code base, which makes it virtually impossible to quickly craft a new version with meaningful changes. That was proved by Vista, they said, when Microsoft - frustrated by lack of progress during the five-year development effort on the new OS - hit the "reset" button and dropped back to the more stable code of Windows Server 2003 as the foundation of Vista.
"This is a large part of the reason [why] Windows Vista delivered primarily incremental improvements," they said. In turn, that became one of the reasons why businesses pushed back Vista deployment plans. "Most users do not understand the benefits of Windows Vista or do not see Vista as being better enough than Windows XP to make incurring the cost and pain of migration worthwhile."
Other analysts, including those at rival Forrester Research, have pointed out the slow move toward Vista. Last month, Forrester said that by the end of 2007 only 6.3 percent of the 50,000 enterprise computer users it surveyed were working with Vista. What gains Vista made during its first year, added Forrester, appeared to be at the expense of Windows 2000; Windows XP's share hardly budged.
The monolithic nature of Windows - although Microsoft talks about Vista's modularity, Silver and MacDonald said it doesn't go nearly far enough - not only makes it tough to deliver a worthwhile upgrade, but threatens Microsoft in the mid- and long-term.
Users want a smaller Windows that can run on low-priced - and low-powered - hardware, and increasingly, users work with "OS-agnostic applications," the two analysts said in their presentation.
"Apple introduced its iPhone running OS X, but Microsoft requires a different product on handhelds because Windows Vista is too large, which makes application development, support and the user experience all more difficult," said Silver and MacDonald.
"Windows as we know it must be replaced," they said in their presentation.
Their advice to Microsoft took several forms, but one road they urged the software giant to take was virtualisation. "We envision a very modular and virtualised world," said the researchers, who spelled out a future where virtualisation - specifically a hypervisor - is standard on client as well as server versions of Windows.
"An OS, in this case Windows, will ride atop the hypervisor, but it will be much thinner, smaller and modular than it is today. Even the Win32 API set should be a module that can be deployed to maintain support for traditional Windows applications on some devices, but other[s] may not have that module installed."
Silver and MacDonald also called on Microsoft to make it easier to move to newer versions of Windows, re-think how the company licenses Windows and come up with a truly modular operating system that can grow or shrink as needed.
Add your commentComments
njdouglas86 | Published: 08:24 GMT, 28 April 2008
The fact that Vista is so large will definitely be one challenge for them to overcome in the mobile realm- especially in light of their recent pursuit of online ad revenue. However, I don't see Apple or Linux taking over completely- MS has too much of a dominating market share and Windows is a pretty darn good OS.
thedreaming | Published: 21:40 GMT, 15 April 2008
Microsoft can't do what Apple did, so they are stuck doing the only thing they know how. They keep intergrating everything into windows. It's bloatware, plain and simple and people are tired of paying for it.
Marc | Published: 18:27 GMT, 13 April 2008
"Windows as we know it must be replaced". Yes, I've already done that. It's called Linux, MacOSX, OpenBSD and a host of other possibilities, each tailored to my clients needs. Thanks, but this is old news. Most of my clients, once they are educated as to how Microsoft has tried to lock them into their product to the detriment of their business, are more than willing to go in a different direction. Only when the applications they use only run under Windows do they stick with it, but they at le
David Potter | Published: 18:23 GMT, 12 April 2008
As a LINUX user, I look forward to the day when Windows is gone altogether; dead like the dinosaur that it really is. I'm happy to see that it is having problems, and that this may be the beginning of the end for it.
jiri | Published: 15:55 GMT, 12 April 2008
it's funny how much everybody hates MS and still 90% of the market is windows. I really don't want Apple OS to dominate, I really don't want Firefox to dominate and I don't even want MS to dominate. There should be competitions between products. Windows is not doomed for sure, I had a respect to Gartner. I don't anymore.
shligshlarg | Published: 15:23 GMT, 12 April 2008
I knew this before they came out with Vista. I have been using Linux for about 8 years now and Linux has become far easier to use for anyone while still allowing those who use it to it's fullest to still reap its benefits. For this reason many, many new people have been flooding the forums, I have noticed, over the past two-three years. And besides that, Vista has tried to implement things that Linux has been doing for a long time... a big example is the 3d desktop environment. I can't wait to s
CMM | Published: 13:24 GMT, 12 April 2008
For many years I have read about the imminent demise of Microsoft. Every 'analyst' and critic that can will come out and speak about the doom hovering over Redmond. I heard it after windows 95 came out, again after 98. ME was a dead end but there were those who spoke of the death bell sounding. XP was so bad at first people thought MS would be closing its doors at the end of the year and now Vista. Vista is so bad you will burst into flames reading the box, your dog will die if you install
jtm | Published: 11:57 GMT, 12 April 2008
This is not Microsoft's only bloated issue. Office has become a bloated mess also. Microsoft real problem is they do not know who to compete against (crush) anymore. In the old days you just put the other guy out of business. Linux, Goggle apps, Mozilla Firefox and Thunderbird to name a few will eventually lead to death by a million paper cuts. With all of Microsoft's brains they totally do not understand the WEB, and I believe it is because it doesn't jive with their business model.
Clement Clarke | Published: 10:12 GMT, 12 April 2008
Back to OS/2? Small, fast, and stable. Way before Win 95.
azylem | Published: 08:43 GMT, 12 April 2008
as a media developer, the day i upgraded to a new vista machine, i had the biggest sigh of relief I've ever. props to m$.. your a pain in the ass, but you make it easier for the rest of us to operate. to everyone else, if you hate it so much go buy a mac and quit complaining.